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| 1 | LASG全球海洋-大气-陆面系统模式(GOALS/LASG)及其模拟研究显示文摘该文扼要介绍了LASG第一版本全球海洋-大气-陆面系统模式(GOALS/LASG)的发展和结构,及其对气候平均态、季节变化和年际变化的模拟,以及近期发展计划. | 吴国雄 张学洪 刘辉 俞永强 金向泽 郭裕福 孙菽芬 李伟平 王标 石广玉 | 1997 | 应用气象学报1997，8，A00： | 103 |
| 2 | An Eddy-Permitting Oceanic General Circulation Model and Its Preliminary Evaluation显示文摘An eddy-permitting, quasi-global oceanic general circulation model, LICOM (LASG/IAP (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics) Climate System Ocean Model), with a uniform grid of 0.5? × 0.5? is established. Forced by wind stresses from Hellerman and Rosenstain (1983), a 40-yr integration is conducted with sea surface temperature and salinity being restored to the Levitus 94 datasets. The evaluation of the annual mean climatology of the LICOM control run shows that the large-scale circulation can be well reproduced. A comparison between the LICOM control run and a parallel integration of L30T63, which has the same framework but a coarse resolution, is also made to con?rm the impact of resolution on the model performance. On account of the reduction of horizontal viscosity with the enhancement of the horizontal resolution, LICOM improves the simulation with respect to not only the intensity of the large scale circulations, but also the magnitude and structure of the Equatorial Undercurrent and South Equatorial Current. Taking advantage of the ?ne grid size, the pathway of the Indonesian Through?ow (ITF) is better represented in LICOM than in L30T63. The transport of ITF in LICOM is more convergent in the upper layer. As a consequence, the Indian Ocean tends to get warmer in LICOM. The poleward heat transports for both the global and individual basins are also signi?cantly improved in LICOM. A decomposed analysis indicates that the transport due to the barotropic gyre, which primarily stands for the barotropic e?ect of the western boundary currents, plays a crucial role in making the di?erence. | 刘海龙 张学洪 李薇 俞永强 宇如聪 | 2004 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2004，21，5： | 68 |
| 3 | 基于LASG/IAP大气环流谱模式的气候系统模式显示文摘文章扼要介绍了基于LASG/IAP大气环流谱模式(SAMIL)的气候系统模式的新版本FGOALS-s的发展和结构。出于发展一个在东亚季风模拟方面有一定优势的气候系统模式之目的,FGOALS-s的大气模式分量SAMIL采用了较高的水平分辨率R42,这相当于2.8125°(经度)×1.66°(纬度),高于三角截断T42的分辨率。对FGOALS-s在模拟大气、陆面、海洋和海冰的气候平均态,以及主要的年际变率信号方面的能力进行了检验。分析表明,FGOALS-s成功地控制了气候漂移趋势,能够较为真实地模拟大气、海洋和陆面的气候平均态,特别是受益于大气模式的较高分辨率,由中国西南向东北延伸的夏季风雨带的分布,在模式中得到较为真实的再现,表明该模式在东亚夏季风的模拟上具有较强能力。耦合模式能够成功再现El Ni^no事件的非规则周期变化,但是其年际变化的振幅较之观测要弱。赤道中西太平洋年际变率的强度较之赤道中东太平洋要强。在中高纬度,模式模拟的北大西洋涛动模态,在空间分布上与观测接近。FGOALS-s模式存在的主要问题,是模拟的热带海温偏冷、而中纬度海温则偏暖,原因是模式模拟的云量分布存在偏差,它直接影响到海表的净热通量收支。模式模拟的北大西洋高纬度地区的海温明显偏冷,令该地区的年平均海冰分布的范围明显偏大;然而受南极周边海温偏高影响,南极洲周围的海冰范围则偏少。FGOALS-s的未来工作重点,宜放在大气模式的云过程、海洋模式的经向能量输送过程、以及海洋与大气的淡水通量耦合方案的改进方面。 | 周天军 王在志 宇如聪 俞永强 刘屹岷 刘海龙 包庆 王鹏飞 李薇 吴国雄 吴统文 | 2005 | 气象学报2005，63，5： | 66 |
| 4 | 地球系统模式发展展望显示文摘在调研国际国内气候系统模式的基础上,给出了地球系统模式的定义和它的3个发展阶段:物理气候系统模式、地球气候系统模式和地球系统模式,阐述了未来的地球系统模式发展的战略意义,介绍了国际国内围绕地球系统模式的发展所提出的科学研究计划,并基于政府间气候变化委员会第四次评估报告的参评模式,回顾了国内外地球系统模式发展现状与动态,展望了未来的可能发展方向,希望能对国内的地球气候系统模式发展有所帮助。 | 王斌 周天军 俞永强 Bin Wang | 2008 | 气象学报2008，66，6： | 57 |
| 5 | 影响我国短期气候异常的关键区:亚印太交汇区显示文摘围绕国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“亚印太交汇区海气相互作用及其对我国短期气候的影响”,介绍了“亚印太交汇区”(AIPO)的概念,从气候系统多圈层相互作用的角度,阐述了研究AIPO区海气相互作用的科学意义;在分析国内外海气相互作用影响气候研究发展动态的基础上,指出AIPO区是影响我国短期气候的关键区;研究AIPO区海气相互作用对我国短期气候的影响也是国民经济发展需要亟待解决的重要课题。介绍了项目拟研究的关键科学问题,指出该项目的最终研究目标为:揭示AIPO季节到年际尺度的海气相互作用特征,从而提出该关键区海气相互作用影响我国短期气候异常的理论框架,为改进东亚季风的季度—年际变化预测提供理论和方法。 | 吴国雄 李建平 周天军 陆日宇 俞永强 朱江 穆穆 段安民 任荣彩 丁一汇 李维京 何金海 王凡 于卫东 乔方利 袁东亮 齐义泉 | 2006 | 地球科学进展2006，21，11： | 46 |
| 6 | 用IAP/LASG GOALS模式模拟CO2增加引起的东亚地区气候变化(英文) | 郭裕福 俞永强 刘喜迎 张学洪 | 2001 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2001，18，1： | 42 |
| 7 | 中国西部地区未来气候变化趋势预测显示文摘用中国科学院大气物理研究所的全球环流耦合模式 (IAP/LASGGOALS) ,对中国西部地区由于CO2 含量增加引起的未来气候变化进行了模拟预测分析。预测CO2 含量每年以 1 %速度递增 ,对此进行了控制试验和扰动试验两个长期积分 ,并用它们的差值来表示中国西部地区的气候变化。结果表明 ,CO2 增加以后 ,在初始阶段平均温度、降水和湿度变化不大 ,随着CO2 含量的增加 ,中国西部地区温度、降水及湿度均呈显著的增加趋势 ,且比全球增加大得多。到 2 0 50年全球温度相对于现在增加 1 5℃ ,而中国西部地区温度升高在 1 2~2 2℃ ,其中最大增温区出现在青藏高原附近 ;西南地区降水将增加 2 0 0mm以上 ,比湿增加最大 ,达 0 8gkg- 1 以上 ,新疆西部和西北部地区降水减少 50mm左右 ,平均降水增加1 5% ,整个西部地区气候变暖变湿。 | 张英娟 董文杰 俞永强 冯锦明 | 2004 | 气候与环境研究2004，9，2： | 37 |
| 8 | Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models in LASG/IAP显示文摘Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), have been working to develop a global OGCM and a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM). From the original flux anomalycoupling model developed in the beginning of the 1990s to the latest directly-coupling model, LASG scientists have developed four global coupled GCMs. This study summarizes the development history of these models and describes the third and fourth coupled GCMs and selected applications. Strengths and weaknesses of these models are highlighted. | 俞永强 张学洪 郭裕福 | 2004 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2004，21，3： | 36 |
| 9 | The Baseline Evaluation of LASG/IAP Climate System Ocean Model (LICOM) Version 2显示文摘The baseline performance of the latest version (version 2) of an intermediate resolution, stand-alone climate oceanic general circulation model, called LASG/IAP (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics/Institute of Atmospheric Physics) Climate system Ocean Model (LICOM), has been evaluated against the observation by using the main metrics from Griffies et al. in 2009. In general, the errors of LICOM2 in the water properties and in the circulation are comparable with the models of Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs). Some common biases are still evident in the present version, such as the cold bias in the eastern Pacific cold tongue, the warm biases off the east coast of the basins, the weak poleward heat transport in the Atlantic, and the relatively large biases in the Arctic Ocean. A unique systematic bias occurs in LICOM2 over the Southern Ocean, compared with CORE models. It seems that this bias may be related to the sea ice process around the Antarctic continent. | 刘海龙 林鹏飞 俞永强 张学洪 | 2012 | Acta meteorologica Sinica2012，26，3： | 37 |
| 10 | The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model, Grid-point Version 2: FGOALS-g2显示文摘This study mainly introduces the development of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2) and the preliminary evaluations of its performances based on results from the pre-industrial control run and four members of historical runs according to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) experiment design. The results suggest that many obvious improvements have been achieved by the FGOALS-g2 compared with the previous version, FGOALS-g1, including its climatological mean states, climate variability, and 20th century surface temperature evolution. For example, FGOALS-g2 better simulates the frequency of tropical land precipitation, East Asian Monsoon precipitation and its seasonal cycle, MJO and ENSO, which are closely related to the updated cumulus parameterization scheme, as well as the alleviation of uncertainties in some key parameters in shallow and deep convection schemes,cloud fraction,cloud macro/microphysical processes and the boundary layer scheme in its atmospheric model. The annual cycle of sea surface temperature along the equator in the Pacific is significantly improved in the new version. The sea ice salinity simulation is one of the unique characteristics of FGOALS-g2, although it is somehow inconsistent with empirical observations in the Antarctic. | 李立娟 林鹏飞 俞永强 王斌 周天军 刘利 刘骥平 包庆 徐世明 黄文誉 夏坤 普业 董理 申思 刘屹岷 胡宁 刘咪咪 孙文奇 史湘军 郑伟鹏 吴波 宋米荣 刘海龙 张学洪 吴国雄 薛巍 黄小猛 杨广文 宋振亚 乔方利 | 2013 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2013，30，3： | 37 |
| 11 | 中国地球气候系统模式的发展及其模拟和预估显示文摘地球气候系统模式是开展多学科、多圈层集成研究的重要平台,其发展是国际地学领域特别是全球变化领域竞争的前沿。中国的地球气候系统模式研发工作始于20世纪80年代,最近10年得到快速发展。研发格局上已经形成中国科学院、有关部委和高校三足鼎立的局面。文中在简要回顾中国地球气候系统模式早期发展历史的基础上,总结了中国参加第6次耦合模式比较计划的9个地球气候系统模式的技术特点,初步评估了中国4个模式对全球和东亚气候模拟的基本性能,分析了其在4种共享社会经济路径情景下对全球降水与温度的预估变化及其与平衡态气候敏感度的联系。最后,结合国际态势,从发展的角度提出未来中国气候模式研发工作需要加强的8个方向。 | 周天军 陈梓明 邹立维 陈晓龙 俞永强 王斌 包庆 鲍颖 曹剑 何编 胡帅 李立娟 李建 林岩銮 马利斌 乔方利 容新尧 宋振亚 唐彦丽 吴波 吴统文 辛晓歌 张贺 张明华 | 2020 | 气象学报2020，78，3： | 38 |
| 12 | 海洋环流模式的发展和应用 Ⅰ.全球海洋环流模式显示文摘概述近10年来中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体动力学数值模拟国家重点实验室全球海洋环流模式的发展及其在全球海气耦合模式的发展和气候模拟方面的应用。重点是:一个30层、0.5°×0.5°的准全球海洋环流模式LICOM的建立及其模拟的热带太平洋海洋环流和印度尼西亚贯穿流;以20层海洋模式为海洋分量建立的全球海洋—大气—陆面系统耦合模式GOALS在气候变化模拟方面的应用,和以海洋模式L30T63为海洋分量建立的灵活的耦合环流模式FGCM-0在热带太平洋—印度洋海气相互作用及古海洋—古气候模拟方面的应用。 | 张学洪 俞永强 刘海龙 | 2003 | 大气科学2003，27，4： | 35 |
| 13 | Climatic Features Related to Eastern China Summer Rainfalls in the NCAR CCM3显示文摘The climatic features associated with the eastern China summer rainfalls (ECSR) are examined in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 3 (CCM3) of the United States of America. and run with time-evolving sea surface temperature (SST) from September 1978 to August 1993. The CCM3 is shown to capture the salient seasonal features of ECSR. As many other climate models. however. there are some unrealistic projections of ECSR in the CCM3. The most unacceptable one is the erroneously intensified precipitation center on the east periphery of the Tibetan Plateau and its northeastward extension. The artificial strong rainfall center is fairly assessed by comparing with the products of the station rainfall data. Xie and Arkin (1996) rainfall data and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (Gibson et al.. 1997). The physical processes involved in the formation of the rainfall center are discussed. The preliminary conclusion reveals that it is the overestimated sensible heating over and around the Tibetan Plateau in the CCM3 that causes the heavy rainfall. The unreal strong surface sensible heating over the southeast and northeast of Tibetan Plateau favors the forming of a powerful subtropical anticyclone over the eastern China. The fake enclosed subtropical anticyclone center makes the moist southwest wind fasten on the east periphery of the Tibetan Plateau and extend to its northeast. In the southeast coast of China. locating on the southeast side of the subtropical anticyclone, the southwest monsoon is decreased and even replaced by northeast wind in some cases. In the CCM3, therefore. the precipita- tion is exaggerated on the east periphery of the Tibetan Plateau and its northeast extension and is underestimated in the southeast coast of China. | 宇如聪 李薇 张学洪 刘屹岷 俞永强 刘海龙 周天军 | 2000 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2000，17，4： | 33 |
| 14 | The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model, Spectral Version 2: FGOALS-s2显示文摘The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2) was used to simulate realistic climates and to study anthropogenic influences on climate change. Specifically, the FGOALS-s2 was integrated with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to conduct coordinated experiments that will provide valuable scientific information to climate research communities. The performances of FGOALS-s2 were assessed in simulating major climate phenomena, and documented both the strengths and weaknesses of the model. The results indicate that FGOALS-s2 successfully overcomes climate drift, and realistically models global and regional climate characteristics, including SST, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation. In particular, the model accurately captures annual and semi-annual SST cycles in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the main characteristic features of the Asian summer monsoon, which include a low-level southwestern jet and five monsoon rainfall centers. The simulated climate variability was further examined in terms of teleconnections, leading modes of global SST (namely, ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO), and changes in 19th-20th century climate. The analysis demonstrates that FGOALS-s2 realistically simulates extra-tropical teleconnection patterns of large-scale climate, and irregular ENSO periods. The model gives fairly reasonable reconstructions of spatial patterns of PDO and global monsoon changes in the 20th century. However, because the indirect effects of aerosols are not included in the model, the simulated global temperature change during the period 1850-2005 is greater than the observed warming, by 0.6 C. Some other shortcomings of the model are also noted. | 包庆 林鹏飞 周天军 刘屹岷 俞永强 吴国雄 何编 何杰 李立娟 李剑东 李阳春 刘海龙 乔方利 宋振亚 王斌 王军 王鹏飞 王晓聪 王在志 吴波 吴统文 徐永福 于海洋 赵伟 郑伟鹏 周林炯 | 2013 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2013，30，3： | 30 |
| 15 | 印度洋对ENSO事件的响应:观测与模拟显示文摘观测事实显示 ,在ElNi no期间 ,伴随着赤道中东太平洋表层海温 (SST)的升高 ,热带印度洋SST出现正距平。作者利用海气耦合模式模拟了印度洋对ENSO事件的上述响应 ,并进而讨论了其物理机制。所用模式为法国国家科研中心Pierre Simon Laplace全球环境科学联合实验室 (IPSL)发展的全球海气耦合模式。该模式成功地控制了气候漂移 ,能够合理再现印度洋的基本气候态。观测中与ENSO相关的热带印度洋SST变化 ,表现为全海盆一致的正距平 ,并且这种变化要滞后赤道中东太平洋SST变化大约一个季度 ,意味着它主要是对东太平洋SST强迫的一种遥响应 ,模式结果也支持这一机制 ,尽管模式中的南方涛动现象被夸大了 ,使得模拟的与ENSO相关联的SST正距平的位置南移 ,阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾被负距平 (而不是正距平 )所控制。研究表明 ,东太平洋主要通过大气桥影响潜热释放来影响印度洋SST变化。赤道东太平洋ElNi no事件的发展 ,导致印度洋上空风场异常自东而西传播 ;伴随着风场的变化 ,潜热发生相应变化 ,并最终导致SST异常的发生。非洲东海岸受索马里急流控制的海域 ,其SST的变化不能简单地利用热通量的变化来解释。证据显示 ,印度洋的增暖是ENSO事件发生的结果而不是其前期信号。 | 周天军 俞永强 宇如聪 张学洪 李肇新 | 2004 | 大气科学2004，28，3： | 27 |
| 16 | 气候系统模式发展中的耦合器研制问题显示文摘基于“耦合器”框架、采用模块化结构是当今气候系统模式发展的主要技术方向。作者概述了耦合器的基本功能 ,对目前世界上应用比较广泛的 1 1个耦合器进行了综合评述 ,重点是美国通用气候模式耦合器和法国的OASIS耦合器 ,扼要概括了目前较具影响力的三个耦合器发展计划 ,在此基础上 ,对耦合器的主要发展态势进行了总结 ,并结合自身模式发展的需求进行了讨论。 | 周天军 俞永强 宇如聪 刘海龙 李薇 张学洪 | 2004 | 大气科学2004，28，6： | 28 |
| 17 | 冬季北太平洋海表热通量异常和海气相互作用——基于一个全球海气耦合模式长期积分的诊断分析显示文摘利用一个全球海气耦合模式长期积分所给出的资料,分析了冬季北太平洋海表湍流热通量(潜热和感热)异常及其对海表温度(SST)异常的影响,并比较了海表热通量诸分量和海洋内部的动力学过程对SST变化的相对重要性。结果表明,冬季热带外海洋上的湍流热通量是影响SST的主要因子,但在北太平洋中部海水的平流作用也不可忽视。冬季热带外海洋向大气释放的潜热和感热通量与SST倾向(而不是SST本身)之间存在着显著的相关,这同Cayan和Reynolds等利用COADS资料和NCEP资料同化模式分析的结果是一致的。模式诊断的结果支持这样一种看法:和热带海洋不同,冬季热带外海洋上的海气相互作用主要地表现为大气对海洋的强迫作用,而不是相反。模式给出的SST倾向的第一个EOF分量及其与海平面气压场的相关特征同Walace等从观测资料分析所得到的结果是一致的;进一步的分析表明:在冬季北太平洋的大部分区域(特别是西太平洋),大尺度大气环流异常在很大程度上决定着SST的异常,而这种决定作用正是通过它对湍流热通量的强烈影响来实现的。 | 张学洪 俞永强 刘辉 | 1998 | 大气科学1998，22，4： | 25 |
| 18 | IAP/LASG海洋环流模式对风应力的响应显示文摘为了检验第三代 IAP/LASG全球海洋环流模式在模拟 20世纪 80年代热带太平洋年际变化方面特别是圆 Nino和 La Nina事件的能力,作者使用了三种风应力资料强迫该模式。然后,将模拟的海温同NCEP海洋同化资料相比较。分析表明,在赤道附近,模式对风应力的响应在 SST分布。温跃层的描绘以及突出El Nino和 La Nina事件方面同 NCEP海洋同化资料有许多共同点。然而,在描绘10°N以北和10°S以南的SST异常以及描写季节循环方面,响应是不够精确的。另外。 | 俞永强 Antoine Izard 张学洪 郭裕福 | 2001 | 大气科学2001，25，6： | 24 |
| 19 | Progress in the Development and Application of Climate Ocean Models and Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Models in China显示文摘评论关于联合模型在中国以及研究与这些模型一起执行了的气候可变性和气候变化的评论开发了的气候海洋模型和海洋空气的发展和应用程序被介绍。当模型开发的历史简短被考察时,强调被放在在最后五年里做的成就上。在模型开发的进展在使用这些模型处理的科学问题上与一篇摘要一起被描述。评论的焦点是气候海洋包括全球、地区性的模型,模型和联系联合模型在大气的物理的研究所发展了,中国科学院。联合的任何一个的进步为另外的机构或气候用国际性地发达的模型当模特儿做的开发建模也被考察。 | 周天军 俞永强 刘海龙 李薇 游小宝 周广庆 | 2007 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2007，24，6： | 23 |
| 20 | Coupled Model Simulations of Climate Changes in the 20th Century and Beyond显示文摘Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report(AR4)are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model(FGOALS)developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences(IAP/CAS),including the'Climate of the 20th century experiment','CO2 1%increase per year to doubling experiment'and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios A1B and B1 experiments.To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change,three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment.The coupled model simulations show:(1)from 1900 to 2000,the global mean temperature increases about 0.5°C and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century,which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model’s ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution;(2)the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6°C in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5 ° C and 2.4°C in the A1B and B1 scenarios,respectively.The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean.The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level.Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS,in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed.They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming. | 俞永强 智海 王斌 万慧 李超 刘海龙 李薇 郑伟鹏 周天军 | 2008 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2008，25，4： | 22 |
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