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| 1 | 东亚夏季风次季节变化研究进展显示文摘东亚夏季风次季节(10~90d)变化是中国夏季持续性强降水、高温热浪等高影响天气事件的重要环流载体,处于天气预报上限和气候季节预测下限之间的预报过渡区。研究表明:东亚夏季风次季节变化是东亚夏季风的固有物理特征,它和季节进程之间的时间锁相关系是东亚夏季风次季节变化潜在可预报性的重要来源。东亚夏季风次季节变化与Madden-Julian振荡(MJO)存在显著差异,试图通过MJO来预测东亚夏季风次季节变化的不确定性较大。东亚夏季风次季节预测的另一重要来源是下垫面外强迫,包括欧亚大陆春季积雪、中国东部春季土壤湿度和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件。此外,去趋势偏-交叉相关分析统计方法能够分析东亚夏季风多因子和多时间尺度问题。目前,亟需解决的科学问题包括:东亚夏季风次季节模态的客观定量描述、造成东亚夏季风次季节模态年际变化的关键物理过程、不同外强迫因子对东亚夏季风次季节模态的共同影响。 | 祝从文 刘伯奇 左志燕 袁乃明 刘舸 | 2019 | 应用气象学报2019，30，4： | 11 |
| 2 | 4~5月南亚高压建立早晚年份环流差异及其可能成因显示文摘利用1979~2008年NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料和向外长波辐射(OLR)资料分析了4~5月南亚高压在中南半岛上空建立早晚年份的环流差异及可能机理。发现南亚高压建立早晚年,对流层高低层环流形势存在显著差异:在对流层高层,偏早年,菲律宾群岛以东洋面上空反气旋环流中心西移速度快,建立完成后,中南半岛上空南亚高压反气旋环流东西范围较宽,整个建立过程时间较长;偏晚年,建立开始前西太平洋上空无闭合的反气旋性环流中心,建立完成后,中南半岛上空南亚高压反气旋环流东西范围较窄,整个建立过程时间较短;在对流层低层,南亚高压建立早晚年风场和海平面气压场都呈现反相的分布形势,与之相联系的Walker环流强度也存在明显差异。中南半岛上空反气旋环流中心生成早晚与中南半岛地区对流建立发展关系密切,当中南半岛地区对流建立发展早时,中南半岛上空反气旋环流中心生成早;反之对流建立发展晚时,中南半岛上空反气旋环流中心生成晚,且中南半岛对流活跃稍早于南亚高压在该地区建立。菲律宾群岛以东洋面上空反气旋环流中心的西移快慢及有无闭合环流中心出现受该区域上空的上升运动和大气非绝热加热作用影响。当菲律宾群岛以东洋面上空的反气旋环流中心西移稳定至130°~145°E这一区域后,非绝热加热的垂直变化对该环流中心的维持及消亡起主要作用。由于前期冬春季节热带太平洋海温的异常分布,引起了后期Walker环流的强弱变化,进而影响了中南半岛至菲律宾群岛以东洋面上空的大气热力状况及上升运动,最终导致南亚高压建立期间环流的演变差异。 | 王黎娟 郭帅宏 何金海 管兆勇 刘伯奇 | 2013 | 大气科学2013，，6： | 8 |
| 3 | The East Asian Subtropical Summer Monsoon:Recent Progress显示文摘The East Asian subtropical summer monsoon(EASSM) is one component of the East Asian summer monsoon system,and its evolution determines the weather and climate over East China.In the present paper,we firstly demonstrate the formation and advancement of the EASSM rainbelt and its associated circulation and precipitation patterns through reviewing recent studies and our own analysis based on JRA-55(Japanese 55-yr Reanalysis) data and CMAP(CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation),GPCP(Global Precipitation Climatology Project),and TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) precipitation data.The results show that the rainy season of the EASSM starts over the region to the south of the Yangtze River in early April,with the establishment of strong southerly wind in situ.The EASSM rainfall,which is composed of dominant convective and minor stratiform precipitation,is always accompanied by a frontal system and separated from the tropical summer monsoon system.It moves northward following the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon.Moreover,the role of the land-sea thermal contrast in the formation and maintenance of the EASSM is illustrated,including in particular the effect of the seasonal transition of the zonal land-sea thermal contrast and the influences from the Tibetan Plateau and midlatitudes.In addition,we reveal a possible reason for the subtropical climate difference between East Asia and East America.Finally,the multi-scale variability of the EASSM and its influential factors are summarized to uncover possible reasons for the intraseasonal,interannual,and interdecadal variability of the EASSM and their importance in climate prediction. | 何金海 刘伯奇 | 2016 | Journal of Meteorological Research2016，30，2： | 5 |
| 4 | 过去300年中国西南与东部地区雨季始期变化特征的比较研究显示文摘亚洲夏季风强弱、雨季来临早迟与我国夏季旱涝的关系密切,因此深入探究亚洲季风的长期变化规律及其各子区域季风系统的相互联系与稳定性具有重要科学意义。文章在参考中国气象局据气象观测资料制定的西南地区雨季开始期行业标准的基础上,结合历史文献清代雨雪分寸的记载特点,重建了1736~1911年成都地区的雨季开始日期序列,分析了其年际-年代际变化的基本特征,并与昆明、华南、长江中下游和华北等地的雨季开始日期序列进行了对比。发现:历史时期成都雨季的初始日与1951~2015年一致,均为5月6候;1740s~1790s、1840s~1850s、1880s~1890s、1960s~1970s和2000s雨季来临较早,而1800s~1830s、1860s~1870s、1900s、1950s和1980s~1990s雨季则推迟;尽管中国东部季风雨带在历史时期的推进过程与现代基本一致,差异为1~3天,但随着季风强度的变化,表现出明显的年代际波动;成都雨季受到南亚季风和东亚季风的共同影响,其雨季来临早晚的变化与昆明相关性更高,与长江中下游梅雨季开始的早晚关系不明显。此外,研究结果还显示亚洲季风在1980~2000年减弱的现象,也曾经发生在1810~1830年。 | 郝志新 张亮 刘洋 葛全胜 | 2021 | 第四纪研究2021，41，2： | 3 |
| 5 | 由冬至夏北半球副热带地区大气热源的季节转换特征及其可能机制显示文摘本文基于多套卫星观测数据和ERA-Interim再分析资料,分析了由冬至夏北半球副热带地区大气热源的季节转换特征及其原因。结果表明,北半球副热带大陆东部以对流凝结潜热为主的夏季型大气热源首先于4月初在我国南方地区建立,该过程与江南雨季的形成发展联系紧密。2~3月,江南地区的大气热源以感热加热为主,这时降水以大尺度层云降水为主;而在4月初之后,江南地区降水以对流性降水为主,相应地对流凝结潜热成为大气热源的主要成分。动力和热力诊断分析说明,青藏高原南部热力状况的季节变化是导致4月初江南地区降水性质和大气热源首先发生季节转换的重要原因。2~3月,随着太阳辐射逐渐增强,青藏高原地面感热随之加强,此时对流层中部的纬向西风令江南地区的对流层中部暖平流加强,引起上升运动并加强局地大尺度层云降水,令土壤湿度加大,为随后局地对流性降水的快速发展提供了有利条件。之后,青藏高原地面感热在4~5月期间继续加强,这时高原南坡的'感热气泵'令其四周的低空水汽向北辐合,从而加强了江南地区的低空南风,使大量水汽自南海—西太平洋向北输送,令江南地区的对流性降水快速发展,地面感热迅速减小,对流凝结潜热进而成为江南地区大气热源的主要成分。 | 黄青兰 刘伯奇 李菲 | 2017 | 大气科学2017，41，5： | 2 |
| 6 | 东亚季风年循环和位相异常导致的降水年际变化特征显示文摘基于1979-2016年资料分析,本文发现,东亚季风可以分解为春分和夏至两个模态,分别反映的是春夏和秋冬影响我国华南和大陆的环流降水特征。东亚夏季风的季节进程表现为春分模态向夏至模态的演变。在年际尺度上,春分和夏至模态的时间位相变化表现出显著的正相关,前冬的ENSO和西北太平洋海温变化可导致东亚季风年循环年际异常,进而造成华南和华北部分地区的冬夏和春秋降水隔季反向变化,这为我国跨季节的降水气候预测提供了理论依据。 | JIANG Song ZHU Congwen JIANG Ning | 2020 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters2020，13，4： | 1 |
| 7 | Using a Hidden Markov Model to Analyze the Flood-Season Rainfall Pattern and Its Temporal Variation over East China显示文摘The homogeneous hidden Markov model(HMM), a statistical pattern recognition method, is introduced in this paper. Based on the HMM, a 53-yr record of daily precipitation during the flood season(April-September) at 389 stations in East China during 1961-2013 is classified into six patterns: the South China(SC) pattern, the southern Yangtze River(SY) pattern, the Yangtze-Huai River(YH) pattern, the North China(NC) pattern, the overall wetter(OW) pattern, and the overall drier(OD) pattern. Features of the transition probability matrix of the first four patterns reveal that 1) the NC pattern is the most persistent, followed by the YH, and the SY is the least one; and 2) there exists a SY-SC-SY-YH-NC propagation process for the rain belt over East China during the flood season. The intraseasonal variability in the occurrence frequency of each pattern determines its start and end time. Furthermore,analysis of interdecadal variability in the occurrence frequency of each pattern in recent six decades has identified three obvious interdecadal variations for the SC, YH, and NC patterns in the mid-late 1970 s, the early 1990 s, and the late 1990 s. After 2000, the patterns concentrated in the southern region play a dominant role, and thus there maintains a 'flooding in the south and drought in the north' rainfall distribution in eastern China. In summary, the HMM provides a unique approach for us to obtain both spatial distribution and temporal variation features of flood-season rainfall. | Lianyi GUO Zhihong JIANG Weilin CHEN | 2018 | Journal of Meteorological Research2018，32，3： | 1 |
| 8 | RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SEASONAL TRANSITION OF EAST ASIAN MONSOON CIRCULATION AND ASIAN-PACIFIC THERMAL FIELD AND POSSIBLE MECHANISMS显示文摘The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, CMAP rainfall and Hadley Centre sea surface temperature(SST) datasets are used to investigate the relationship between the seasonal transition of East Asian monsoon and Asian-Pacific thermal contrast, together with the possible causes. Based on the 250 h Pa air temperature over two selected key areas, the Asian-Pacific thermal difference(APTD) index is calculated. Results show that the APTD index is highly consistent with the Asian-Pacific Oscillation(APO) index defined by Zhao et al., in terms of different key areas in different seasons. Moreover, the time point of the seasonal transition of the Asian-Pacific thermal contrast can be well determined by the APTD index, indicative of seasonal variation in East Asian atmospheric circulation from winter to summer. The transition characteristic of the circulation can be summarized as follows. The continental cold high at lower tropospheric level moves eastward to the East China Sea and decreases rapidly in intensity, while the low-level northerlies turn to southerlies. At middle tropospheric level, the East Asia major trough is reduced and moves eastward. Furthermore, the subtropical high strengthens and appears near Philippines. The South Asia high shifts from the east of Philippines to the west of Indochina Peninsula, and the prevailing southerlies change into northerlies in upper troposphere. Meanwhile,both the westerly and easterly jets both jump to the north. The seasonal transition of atmospheric circulation is closely related to the thermal contrast, and the possible mechanism can be concluded as follows. Under the background of the APTD seasonal transition, the southerly wind appears firstly at lower troposphere, which triggers the ascending motion via changing vertical shear of meridional winds. The resultant latent heating accelerates the transition of heating pattern from winter to summer. The summer heating pattern can further promote the adjustment of circulation, which favors the formation and strengthening of the low-level southerly and upper-level northerly winds. As a result, the meridional circulation of the East Asian subtropical monsoon is established through a positive feedback between the circulation and thermal fields. Moreover, the time point of this seasonal transition has a significant positive correlation with the SST anomalies over the tropical central-eastern Pacific Ocean, providing a basis for the short-term climate prediction. | 黄娇文 何金海 徐海明 金啟华 | 2016 | Journal of Tropical Meteorology2016，22，4： | 1 |
| 9 | CLIMATOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF SPRING PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND ITS INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION显示文摘Based on observations and reanalysis data,the characteristics of the evolution of climatological spring precipitation over Southern China(SPSC) and the associated climatological intraseasonal oscillation(CISO) and atmospheric circulation are studied.Results show that SPSC increases in an oscillatory way.Although the evolution of SPSC is similar in different regions,there are also differences.In different regions of Southern China,the onset dates of the rain season are from the 12 th to 24 th pentad and the peak dates are after the 20 th pentad.CISO is an important component of SPSC,which is not only statistically significant,but also accompanies a dynamically coherent structure.The peak wet/dry phase of each CISO cycle corresponds to a significant rainfall increasing/decreasing period and modulates the evolution of SPSC.The rainfall growth in the second half of March and mid-April is the result of the modulation.The wet/dry phase of CISO is accompanied by low-level convergent(upper-level divergent) and cyclonic(anti-cyclonic) circulation,which favors ascending motion to develop over Southern China. | 潘蔚娟 李春晖 蒋承霖 | 2016 | Journal of Tropical Meteorology2016，22，2： | 1 |
| 10 | Mechanism of Regional Subseasonal Precipitation in the Strongest and Weakest East Asian Summer Monsoon Subseasonal Variation Years显示文摘Using the National Center for Environment Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis coupled dataset during 1979–2010,we selected four subseasonal indexes from the 16 East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)indexes to characterize the subseasonal variability of the entire EASM system.The strongest(1996)and weakest(1998)years of the subseasonal variation were revealed based on these subseasonal EASM indexes.Furthermore,three rainfall concentration areas were defined in East Asia,and these areas were dissected by the atmospheric midlatitude jet stream axis and the position of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High(WNPSH).Then,the subseasonal effects of the WNPSH,the South Asian High(SAH),the Mongolian Cyclone(MC),and the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation(BSISO)on each rainfall concentration area were studied in the strongest and weakest subseasonal variation years of the EASM.During the summer of 1998,the WNPSH and the SAH were stable in the more southern region,which not only blocked the northward progression of the BSISO but also caused the MC to advance southward.Therefore,the summer of 1998 was the weakest subseasonal variability of the EASM,but with significant subseasonal precipitation episodes in the northern and central rainfall areas.However,in 1996,the BSISO repeatedly spread northward in the south rainfall area because of the weak intensities and northern positions of the WNPSH and the SAH,which caused significant subseasonal precipitation episodes.In addition,MC was blocked to the north of approximately 42°N with a weak subseasonal rainfall. | HU Haibo DENG Yuheng FANG Jiabei WANG Rongrong | 2022 | Journal of Ocean University of China2022，21，6： | 1 |
| 11 | 孟加拉湾风暴“罗纳”对我国华南地区强降水的影响显示文摘利用NCEP/NCAR FNL再分析资料、CMORPH卫星-地面自动站融合降水数据以及FY-2G卫星反演的云顶亮温TBB资料,针对2016年5月19-20日孟加拉湾风暴'罗纳'给我国华南地区暴雨过程带来的影响进行诊断分析。结果表明:华南地区500 hPa高空槽的发展和维持为暴雨的发生提供重要的大尺度环流背景,高低空急流耦合激发MCS的发展,促使降水增幅,孟加拉湾风暴'罗纳'及其北侧副热带西风急流为华南地区暴雨的发生提供重要的水汽通道。此外,在'罗纳'东北移动过程中,315 K等熵面上正位涡平流东传显著,在高空急流辐散抽吸作用下,华南低层出现气旋性涡旋,为暴雨的发生发展提供动力条件。可见,孟加拉湾风暴'罗纳'外围云团不仅向华南强降水区输送水汽,而且高温高湿的气流进一步加剧了降水区的层结不稳定,积累了不稳定能量。 | 柳龙生 许映龙 | 2020 | 干旱气象2020，38，2： | 1 |
| 12 | Regional Characteristics of Cloud Radiative Effects before and after the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset显示文摘The South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM)onset is characterized by rapid thermodynamical changes in the atmosphere that are critical to regional weather and climate processes.So far,few studies have focused on the changes in the associated cloud and radiative features.This study investigates spatiotemporal characteristics of topof-atmosphere(TOA)cloud radiative effects(CREs)before and after the SCSSM onset over the South China Sea(SCS)and South China(SC),based on the 2001–2016 Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System(CERES)Energy Balanced and Filled(EBAF)satellite data and ERA-Interim reanalysis data.Before the SCSSM onset,strong net CRE(NCRE)dominated by its cooling shortwave component occurs over SC,while descending motion and weak NCRE prevail over the SCS.In the SCSSM onset pentad,convection,high clouds,and longwave and shortwave CREs(LWCRE and SWCRE)abruptly increase over the southern and central SCS,and their high-value centers subsequently move northeastward and are strongly affected by the western Pacific subtropical high.The strong offset between LWCRE and SWCRE enables the NCRE intensity(TOA radiation budget)to be quite small(large)between the SCS and the western North Pacific after the SCSSM onset.In contrast,low–middle-level clouds and strong cooling SWCRE remain over SC after the SCSSM onset,but the increasing high clouds and LWCRE weaken(intensify)the regional NCRE(TOA radiation budget)intensity.These marked latitudinal differences in CREs between the SCS and SC primarily arise from their respective dominant cloud types and circulation conditions,which manifest the differences between the tropical SCSSM and subtropical East Asian monsoon processes.The results indicate that regional cloud fractions and CREs before and after the SCSSM onset are strongly modulated by quickly changed largescale circulation over the East Asian monsoon regions,and the spatiotemporal variation of CREs is a response to the monsoonal circulation adjustment to a large extent. | Man HUANG Jiandong LI Gang ZENG Yongkun XIE | 2020 | Journal of Meteorological Research2020，34，6： | 0 |
| 13 | Indices of strength and location for the North Pacific Subtropical and Subpolar Gyres显示文摘The adjustment of the North Pacific Subtropical and Subpolar Gyres towards changes in wind stress leads to different time-scale variabilities, which plays a significant role in climate changes. Based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) and Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) datasets, the variations of the Subtropical and Subpolar Gyres are diagnosed using 'three-dimension Ocean Circulation Diagnostic Method', and established three types of index series describe the strength, meridional and depth center of the Subtropical and Subpolar Gyres. The above indices present the seasonal, interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the Subtropical and Subpolar Gyres, which proves well. Both the Gyres are the strongest in winter, but the Subtropical Gyre is the weakest in summer and the Subpolar Gyre is the weakest in autumn. The Subtropical Gyre moves northward from February to March, southward in October, and to the southernmost in around January, while the Subpolar Gyre moves northward in spring, southward in summer, northward again in autumn and reaching the extreme point in winter to the south. The common feature of the interannual and interdecadal variabilities is that the two gyres were weaker and to the north before 1976-1977, while they were stronger and to the south after 1976-1977. The Subpolar Gyre has made a paramount contribution to the variability on interdecadal scales. As is indicated with the Subpolar Gyre strength indices, there was an important shift from weak to strong around 1976-1977, and the correlation coefficient with the North Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices was 0.45, which was far better than that between the Subtropical Gyre strength indices and the PDO. Tests show that influenced by small and mesoscale eddies, the magnitude of large-scale gyres strength is strongly dependent on data resolution. But seasonal interannual and interdecadal large-scale variabilities of the two gyres presented with indices is less affected by model resolution. | JIANG Hua JIN Qihua WANG Hui HUANG Ruixin | 2013 | Acta Oceanologica Sinica2013，32，5： | 0 |
| 14 | Relationship over southern China between the summer rainfall induced by tropical cyclones and that by monsoon显示文摘本文分析华南夏季风降水(P_(SM))与热带气旋降水(P_(TC))在年际和年代际尺度上的物理联系,结果表明:在年际变化上,华南P_(SM)与P_(TC)呈显著负相关。南海-西北太平洋的气旋性涡度和相对湿度增加以及垂直风切变减弱,有利于更多的热带气旋生成,从而使得华南P_(TC)增加。同时异常增暖的赤道中太平洋SST和异常偏冷的北印度洋SST会激发南海-西太平洋异常气旋,加之中国东部-日本异常反气旋的作用,使得华南P_(SM)减少。在年代际尺度上,华南P_(SM)与P_(TC)呈显著正相关,在1990s初华南P_(SM)与P_(TC)明显增加。其中,南海生成的热带气旋对华南P_(TC)年代际增多有重要贡献。前期冬春季西太平洋持续异常偏暖的SST会通过垂直环流的作用引起热带印度洋SST增暖并持续到夏季,之后偏暖的热带印度洋SST又反馈作用于西北太平洋异常反气旋,使得华南P_(SM)增加。1990s初南海夏季风爆发年代际偏早,促使华南上空的大气显热源从5月持续增加至夏季,从而有助于东亚副热带夏季风的增强和华南P_(SM)增加。 | CHEN Jie-Peng WEN Zhi-Ping WANG Xin | 2017 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters2017，10，1： | 0 |
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