Effects of sunspot cycle length and CO_2 on air temperature along Qinghai-Xizang railway and air temperature's trend prediction

查看全文 作　　者：LI Dongliang, QUO Hui, WANG Wen & WEI LiCold & Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Science, Lanzhou 730000, China;Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China 出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》索引2004年第47卷第z1期,共11页 摘　　要：There are well coherences between annual averaged air temperatures at every meteorological station along the Qinghai-Xizang railway, and its 10-year moving average correlation coefficient is 0.92. Thus, the regional averaged annual mean temperature series along the Qinghai-Xizang railway (Trw) from 1935 to 2000 are constructed. The investigation is suggested that: Trw had significant responses to the 5-year lagged sunspot cycle length (SCL) and 15-year lagged concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and the correlation coefficients between them are -0.76 (SCL) and 0.88 (CO2), respectively. The future SCL is predicted by the model of average generated function constructed with its main cycles of 76a, 93a, 108a, 205a and 275a. The result shows that the SCL would be becoming longer in the first half of the 21st century, and then it could be becoming shorter in the second half of the 21st century. Based on the natural change of SCL and the effect of double CO2 concentration, Trw in the 21st century is forecasted. It could warm up about 0.50℃ in the first half of the 21st century compared with the last decade of last century. The mean maximum air temperature could be likely about 0.20℃ in July and from 0.40℃ to 1.10℃ in January. The annual air temperature difference would likely reduce 0.3-1.00℃. The probability of above predictions ranges from 0.64 to 0.73. 关 键 词：QINGHAI-XIZANG railway, ANNUAL mean air temperature, SUNSPOT cycle length (SCL), atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2), prediction.