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Susceptibility Assessment of Landslides Caused by the Wenchuan Earthquake Using a Logistic Regression Model

查看全文 作　　者：SU [1,2]Fenghuan CUI [1,2]Peng ZHANG [1,2,3]Jianqiang XIANG [1,2,3]Lingzhi 高影响力作者 机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Land Surface Processes, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu China;[2]Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu China;[3]Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China高影响力机构 出　　处：《Journal of Mountain Science》索引2010年第7卷第3期,共12页高影响力期刊 基　　金：supported by State Key Fundamental Research Program (973) project (2008CB425802);the National natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40801009) 摘　　要：The Wenchuan earthquake on May 12,2008 caused numerous collapses,landslides,barrier lakes,and debris flows.Landslide susceptibility mapping is important for evaluation of environmental capacity and also as a guide for post-earthquake reconstruction.In this paper,a logistic regression model was developed within the framework of GIS to map landslide susceptibility.Qingchuan County,a heavily affected area,was selected for the study.Distribution of landslides was prepared by interpretation of multi-temporal and multi-resolution remote sensing images(ADS40 aerial imagery,SPOT5 imagery and TM imagery,etc.) and field surveys.The Certainly Factor method was used to find the influencial factors,indicating that lithologic groups,distance from major faults,slope angle,profile curvature,and altitude are the dominant factors influencing landslides.The weight of each factor was determined using a binomial logistic regression model.Landslide susceptibility mapping was based on spatial overlay analysis and divided into five classes.Major faults have the most significant impact,and landslides will occur most likely in areas near the faults.Onethird of the area has a high or very high susceptibility,located in the northeast,south and southwest,including 65.3% of all landslides coincident with the earthquake.The susceptibility map can reveal the likelihood of future failures,and it will be useful for planners during the rebuilding process and for future zoning issues. 关 键 词：LOGISTIC回归模型 敏感性 大地震 汶川 滑坡灾害 山崩 引发 评估
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