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Prediction method for risks of coal and gas outbursts based on spatial chaos theory using gas desorption index of drill cuttings

查看全文 作　　者：Li [1,2]Dingqi;Cheng [1]Yuanping;Wang [1]Lei;Wang [1]Haifeng;Wang [1]Liang;Zhou [1]Hongxing 高影响力作者 机构地区：[1]National Engineering Research Center for Coal Gas Control, China University of Mining & Technology, Xuzhou 221008, China;[2]Safety Engineering Institute, Heilongjiang Science & Technology, Harbin 150027, China高影响力机构 出　　处：《Mining Science and Technology》索引2011年第21卷第3期,共5页高影响力期刊 基　　金：Financial support for this work, provided by the National Basic Research Program of China (No.2011CB201204);the National Youth Science Foundation Program (No.50904068);the Heilongjiang Science & Technology Scientific Research Foundation Program for the Eighth Introduction of Talent (No.06-26);the National Engineering Research Center for Coal Gas Control 摘　　要：Based on the evolution of geological dynamics and spatial chaos theory, we proposed the advanced prediction an advanced prediction method of a gas desorption index of drill cuttings to predict coal and gas outbursts. We investigated and verified the prediction method by a spatial series data of a gas desorption index of drill cuttings obtained from the II3112 coal roadway at the Shitai Mine. Our experimental results show that the spatial distribution of the gas desorption index of drill cuttings has some chaotic characteristics, which implies that the risk of coal and gas outbursts can be predicted by spatial chaos theory. We also found that a proper amount of sample data needs to be chosen in order to ensure the accuracy and practical maneuverability of prediction. The relative prediction error is small when the prediction pace is chosen carefully. In our experiments, it turned out that the optimum number of sample points is 80 and the optimum prediction pace 30. The corresponding advanced prediction pace basically meets the requirements of engineering applications. 关 键 词：煤与瓦斯突出 理论预测 瓦斯解吸 突出危险 混沌理论 和空间 钻屑 气体
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