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Amplitudes, rates, periodicities and causes of temperature variations in the past 2485 years and future trends over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau

查看全文 作　　者：LIU [1,2]YU;CAI [1]QiuFang;SONG [1,3]HuiMing;AN [1]ZhiSheng;Hans W. [4]LINDERHOLM 高影响力作者 机构地区：[1]The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710075, China;[2]Department of Environmental Science and Technology, School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China;[3]Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, Chin;[4]Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, SE-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden高影响力机构 出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》索引2011年第56卷第28期,共9页高影响力期刊 基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40890051);the Hundred Talents Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW-Q1-01);the Key Technology R & D Program of China (2007BAC30B01);SKLLQG Foundation 摘　　要：Amplitudes, rates, periodicities, causes and future trends of temperature variations based on tree rings for the past 2485 years on the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau were analyzed. The results showed that extreme climatic events on the Plateau, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th Century Warming appeared synchronously with those in other places worldwide. The largest amplitude and rate of temperature change occurred during the Eastern Jin Event (343-425 AD), and not in the late 20th century. There were significant cycles of 1324 a, 800 a, 199 a, 110 a and 2-3 a in the 2485-year temperature series. The 1324 a, 800 a, 199 a and 110 a cycles are associated with solar activity, which greatly affects the Earth surface temperature. The long-term trends (>1000 a) of temperature were controlled by the millennium-scale cycle, and amplitudes were dominated by multi-century cycles. Moreover, cold intervals corresponded to sunspot minimums. The prediction indicated that the temperature will decrease in the future until to 2068 AD and then increase again. 关 键 词：青藏高原东部 温度变化 发展趋势 周期性 幅度 速率 原因 中央
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