Income Growth,Urbanization,Changing Life Style and Energy Requirements in China

查看全文 作　　者：Wang [1,2,3]Yan;Shi [1,2]Minjun 机构地区：[1]Research Center on Fictitious Economy and Data Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;[2]Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;[3]Communication University of China,Beijing 100024,China 出　　处：《Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment》索引2012年第10卷第2期,共9页 基　　金：supported by Young Science Foundation of Communications University of China (Grant No. XNL1107) 摘　　要：This paper aims to estimate the effects of changing life style and consumption demands driven by income growth and urbanization on increase of energy requirements in China, and es-timate the impacts of improvement in household consumption on mitigating energy requirements towards 2020, based on input-out-put analysis and scenarios simulation approach. The result shows that energy requirement per capita has increased by 159% for urban residents and 147% for rural residents from 1995 to 2004. Growth in household consumption driven by income growth and urbanization may induce a successive increase in energy require-ments in future. Per capita energy requirements of urban residents will increase by 240% during 2002-2015 and 330% during 2002-2020. Urbanization might lead to 0.75 billion ton of increment of energy requirements in 2020. About 45%-48% of total energy requirements in China might be a consequence of residents' life styles and the economic activities to support consumption demands in 2020. Under low-carbon life style scenario, per capita energy requirements of urban residents may decline to 97% in 2015 and 92% in 2020 in contrast with baseline scenario. That implies that China needs to pay a great attention to developing green low-carbon life style in order to realize mitigation target towards 2020. 关 键 词：能源需求 生活方式 城市化 中国 收入 城镇居民 消费需求 家庭消费