Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes

查看全文 作　　者：LIU [1]Run;LIU Shaw [2,3]Chen;Ralph [4,5]J.CICERONE;SHIU Chein-[2]Jung;LI [1]Jun;WANG [6]Jingli;ZHANG [1]Yuanhang

机构地区：[1]State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control,College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University;[2]Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica;[3]Department of Atmospheric Science, NCU;[4]National Academy of Sciences;[5]Earth System Science, University of California;[6]Institute of Urban Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》索引2015年第32卷第8期,共11页

基　　金：supported in part by the Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant No. XDB05010500);the Clean Air Research Project in China (Grant No. 201509001);the Sustainable Development Research Project of Academia Sinica, Consortium for Climate Change Study;funded by the National Science Council (Grant No. 100-2119-M-001-029-MY5);sponsored by the Collaborative Innovation Center for Regional Environmental Quality;the State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, Peking University 摘　　要：Significant increases of heavy precipitation and decreases of light precipitation have been reported over widespread regions of the globe. Global warming and effects of anthropogenic aerosols have both been proposed as possible causes of these changes. We examine data from urban and rural meteorological stations in eastern China(1955–2011) and compare them with Global Precipitation Climatology Project(GPCP) data(1979–2007) and reanalysis data in various latitude zones to study changes in precipitation extremes. Significant decreases in light precipitation and increases in heavy precipitation are found at both rural and urban stations, as well as low latitudes over the ocean, while total precipitation shows little change.Characteristics of these changes and changes in the equatorial zone and other latitudes suggest that global warming rather than aerosol effects is the primary cause of the changes. In eastern China, increases of annual total dry days(28 days) and 10 consecutive dry days(36%) are due to the decrease in light precipitation days, thereby establishing a causal link among global warming, changes in precipitation extremes, and higher meteorological risk of floods and droughts. Further, results derived from the GPCP data and reanalysis data suggest that the causal link exists over widespread regions of the globe. 关键词：降水趋势中国东部原因降水量变化再分析资料全球变暖低纬度地区全球范围

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Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes

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