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Assessing the spatiotemporal malaria transmission intensity with heterogeneous risk factors:A modeling study in Cambodia

查看全文 作　　者：Mutong [1,2]Liu;Yang [1,2]Liu;Ly [3]Po;Shang [2,4,5,6]Xia;Rekol [3]Huy;Xiao-Nong [2,4,5,6]Zhou;Jiming [1,2]Liu 高影响力作者 机构地区：[1]Department of Computer Science,Hong Kong Baptist University,Hong Kong Special administrative region of China;[2]HKBU-CSD&NIPD Joint Research Laboratory for Intelligent Disease Surveillance and Control,China;[3]National Center for Parasitology,Entomology&Malaria Control(CNM),Ministry of Health,Phnom Penh,Cambodia;[4]National Institute of Parasitic Diseases,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai,China;[5]Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology,National Health and Commission of the People's Republic of China,Shanghai,China;[6]WHO Collaborating Center for Tropical Diseases,Shanghai,China高影响力机构 出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》索引2023年第8卷第1期,共17页高影响力期刊 基　　金：funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(2021ZD0112501/2021ZD0112502);the HKSAR Research Grants Council(12201318/12201619/12202220);the HKBU/CSD Departmental Start-up Fund for New Assistant Professors. 摘　　要：Malaria control can significantly benefit from a holistic and precise way of quantitatively measuring the transmission intensity,which needs to incorporate spatiotemporally varying risk factors.In this study,we conduct a systematic investigation to characterize malaria transmission intensity by taking a spatiotemporal network perspective,where nodes capture the local transmission intensities resulting from dominant vector species,the population density,and land cover,and edges describe the cross-region human mobility patterns.The inferred network enables us to accurately assess the transmission intensity over time and space from available empirical observations.Our study focuses on malaria-severe districts in Cambodia.The malaria transmission intensities determined using our transmission network reveal both qualitatively and quantitatively their seasonal and geographical characteristics:the risks increase in the rainy season and decrease in the dry season;remote and sparsely populated areas generally show higher transmission intensities than other areas.Our findings suggest that:the human mobility(e.g.,in planting/harvest seasons),environment(e.g.,temperature),and contact risk(coexistences of human and vector occurrence)contribute to malaria transmission in spatiotemporally varying degrees;quantitative relationships between these influential factors and the resulting malaria transmission risk can inform evidence-based tailor-made responses at the right locations and times. 关 键 词：MALARIA Transmission intensity assessment Spatiotemporal network Computational approach Heterogeneous risk factors
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