Stochastic dynamic model of SARS spreading

查看全文 作　　者：SHI Yaolin Computational Geodynamics Laboratory of Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China (e-mail: shiyl@gscas.ac.cn)

出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》索引2003年第48卷第13期,共6页

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation and the President Fund from the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 摘　　要：Based upon the simulation of the stochastic process of infection, onset and spreading of each SARS patient, a system dynamic model of SRAS spreading is constructed. Data from Vietnam is taken as an example for Monte Carlo test. The preliminary results indicate that the time-dependent infection rate is the most important control factor for SARS spreading. The model can be applied to prediction of the course with fluctuations of the epidemics, if the previous history of the epidemics and the future infection rate under control measures are known. 关键词：SARS 非典型肺炎随机过程传染病模型疫情控制

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Stochastic dynamic model of SARS spreading

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