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您的检索式：作者名="Utku Perktas"
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| 1 | Rapid range expansion predicted for the Common Grackle(Quiscalus quiscula)in the near future under climate change scenarios显示文摘Background:Climate change due to anthropogenic global warming is the most important factor that will affect future range distribution of species and will shape future biogeographic patterns.While much effort has been expended in understanding how climate change will affect rare and declining species we have less of an understanding of the likely consequences for some abundant species.The Common Grackle(Quiscalus quiscula;Linnaeus 1758),though declining in portions of its range,is a widespread blackbird(Icteridae)species in North America east of the Rocky Mountains.This study examined how climate change might affect the future range distribution of Common Grackles.Methods:We used the R package Wallace and six general climate models(ACCESS1-0,BCC-CSM1-1,CESM1-CAM5-1-FV2,CNRM-CM5,MIROC-ESM,and MPI-ESM-LR)available for the future(2070)to identify climatically suitable areas,with an ecological niche modelling approach that includes the use of environmental conditions.Results:Future projections suggested a significant expansion from the current range into northern parts of North America and Alaska,even under more optimistic climate change scenarios.Additionally,there is evidence of possible future colonization of islands in the Caribbean as well as coastal regions in eastern Central America.The most important bioclimatic variables for model predictions were Annual Mean Temperature,Temperature Seasonality,Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter and Annual Precipitation.Conclusions:The results suggest that the Common Grackle could continue to expand its range in North America over the next 50 years.This research is important in helping us understand how climate change will affect future range patterns of widespread,common bird species. | Peter Capainolo Utku Perktaş Mark DEFellowes | 2021 | Avian Research2021，12，4： | 0 |
| 2 | On the potential of documenting decadal-scale avifaunal change from before-and-after comparisons of museum and observational data across North America显示文摘Studies of biodiversity dynamics have been cast on either long(systematics)or short(ecology)time scales,leaving a gap in coverage for moderate time scales of decades to centuries.Large-scale biodiversity information resources now available offer opportunities to fill this gap for many parts of the world via detailed,quantitative comparisons of assemblage composition,particularly for regions without rich time series datasets.We explore the possibility that such changes in avifaunas across the United States and Canada before and after the first three decades of marked global change(i.e.,prior to 1980 versus after 2010)can be reconstructed and characterized from existing primary biodiversity data.As an illustration of the potential of this methodology for sites even in regions not as well sampled as the United States and Canada,we also explored changes at a single site in Mexico(Chichén-Itzá).We analyzed two large-scale datasets:one summarizing bird records in the United States and Canada before 1980,and one for the same region after 2010.We used probabilistic inventory completeness analyses to identify sites that have avifaunas that have likely been inventoried more or less completely.We prepared detailed comparisons between the two time periods to analyze species showing distributional changes over the time period analyzed.We identified 139 sites on a 0.05°grid that were demonstrably well-inventoried before 1980 in the United States and Canada,of which 108 were also well-inventoried after 2010.Comparing presence/absence patterns between the two time periods for 601 bird species,we found significant spatial autocorrelation in overall avifaunal turnover(species gained and lost),but not in numbers of species lost.We noted potential northward retractions of ranges of several species with high-latitude(boreal)distributions,while other species showed dominant patterns of population loss,either rangewide(e.g.,Tympanuchus cupido)or regionally(e.g.,Thryomanes bewickii).We developed linear models to explore a suite of potential drivers of species loss at relatively fine-grained resolutions(<6km),finding significant effects of precipitation increase,particularly on the eastern border of the United States and Canada.Our exploration of biotic change in Chichén-Itzáincluded 265 species and showed intriguing losses from the local avifauna(e.g.,Patagioenas speciosa),as well as vagrant and recent invasive species in the Yucatán Peninsula.The present work documents both the potential for and the problems involved in an approach integrating primary biodiversity data across time periods.This method potentially allows researchers to assess intermediate-time-scale biodiversity dynamics that can reveal patterns of change in biodiversity-rich regions that lack extensive time-series information. | Fernando Machado-Stredel Benedictus Freeman Daniel Jiménez-Garcia Marlon E.Cobos Claudia Nunez-Penichet Laura Jiménez Ed Komp Utku Perktas Ali Khalighifar Kate Ingenloff Walter Tapondjou Thilina de Silva Sumudu Fernando Luis Osorio-Olvera A.Townsend Peterson | 2022 | Avian Research2022，13，1： | 0 |
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